This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Similar articles in PubMed Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Citing Articles Citing Articles via Google Scholar Citing Articles via Scopus Google Scholar Articles by Prentky, R. A. Articles by Lee, A. F. S. Search for Related Content PubMed PubMed Citation Articles by Prentky, R. A. Articles by Lee, A. F. S. Social Bookmarking                         What's this?

Effect of Age-at-Release on Long Term Sexual Re-offense Rates in Civilly Committed Sexual Offenders

Research Department, Justice Resource Institute, 63 Main Street, Suite 6, Bridgewater, MA 02324, USA, rprentky{at}jri.org

Austin F. S. Lee

Department of Mathematics, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA, Fong{at}bu.edu

A cohort of 136 rapists and 115 child molesters civilly committed to a prison in Massachusetts and followed for 25 years (see Prentky, Lee, Knight, & Cerce, 1997) was examined for the effect of age at time of release on sexual recidivism. The present study (1) examined the recidivism rates for each of five age-at-release groups, separately for rapists and child molesters, (2) tested the fit of linear and quadratic models for 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25-year windows using Cox regression analysis, (3) presented the predicted failure rates for rapists (up to five years post-release) and child molesters (out 21 years post-release), and (4) provided a computational formula for estimating the sexual recidivism rate given an individual's age and number of years post-release. For rapists, a linear model extending 5 years best captured our data (LR = 5.62, p < .02). Going out any further than 5 years did not enhance the predictive efficacy of the model. By contrast, a quadratic model extending the full duration of the study (25 years) provided the best fit (LR = 6.30, p < .04) for child molesters. Our data supported the general conclusion that risk of sexual recidivism diminishes as a function of increasing age at time of release for rapists. We found marked differences, however, in the re-offense patterns of rapists and child molesters, with the latter group evidencing a distinct quadratic, rather than linear, pattern. Since these findings derive from a population screened for civil commitment by virtue of their presumptive dangerousness, they may not be generalizable to samples of sex offenders drawn from the general prison population.

Key Words: Sex offender recidivism • Age at release • Civil commitment

Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, Vol. 19, No. 1, 43-59 (2007)
DOI: 10.1177/107906320701900105


CiteULike    Complore    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    Twitter    What's this?