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Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment
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Static and Dynamic Predictors of Recidivism in Sexual Aggressors

Jean Proulx

Université de Montréal (École de criminologie, Centre international de criminologie comparée), Case postale 6128, Succ. Gentre-ville, Montreal, Quibec, Canada H3C 3J7, École de criminologie, Universitd de Montreal, C.P 6128, Succ. Centre-ville, Montreal, Québec, Canada H3C 3J7

Bruno Pellerin

Institut Philippe Pinel de Montrdal, 10905 boul. Henri-Bourassa Est, Montréal, Québec, Canada H1C 1H1

Yves Paradis

Institut Philippe Pinel de Montrdal, 10905 boul. Henri-Bourassa Est, Montréal, Québec, Canada H1C 1H1

André McKibben

Institut Philippe Pinel de Montrdal, 10905 boul. Henri-Bourassa Est, Montréal, Québec, Canada H1C 1H1

Jocelyn Aubut

Institut Philippe Pinel de Montrdal, 10905 boul. Henri-Bourassa Est, Montréal, Québec, Canada H1C 1H1

Marc Ouimet

Université de Montréal (École de criminologie, Centre international de criminologie comparée), Case postale 6128, Succ. Gentre-ville, Montreal, Quibec, Canada H3C 3J7

The aim of this study was to vefify whether static factors (criminal history, age, relationship status) and dynamic factors (deviance index based on phallometric data, score of psychometric testing) permit prediction of recidivism in sexual aggressors. Three types of recidivism (sexual, violent, criminal) were determined in 113 rapists and in 269 child molesters over an average follow-up of 64.5 months. The sexual reconviction rate was 21.2% in rapists and 13% in child molesters. Reconvicted rapists were younger and had more previous convictions than those who were not reconvicted, Compared with those who did not reoffend, the child molesters who were reconvicted for a sexual offense had higher pedophilic indices, had more previous sexual charges, were younger, more frequently had male victims, had more frequently extrafamilial victims, and a higher percentage of them were living alone. Psychometric data did not predict recidivism in either rapists or child molesters.

Key Words: prediction • recidivism • rapists • child molesters • plethysmography • prediction • rapists • recidivism • risk assessment • sexual offenders.

Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, Vol. 9, No. 1, 7-27 (1997)
DOI: 10.1177/107906329700900102
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