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Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment
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What's this?

Long-Term Predictive Validity of the Risk Matrix 2000

A Comparison With the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide

Drew A. Kingston

University of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, dking062{at}uottawa.ca

Pamela M. Yates

Cabot Consulting and Research Services, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Philip Firestone

University of Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

Kelly Babchishin

Carleton University, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada

John M. Bradford

Royal Ottawa Health Care Centre and University of Ottawa Institute of Mental Health Research, Ontario, Canada

The purpose of this study is to examine the predictive accuracy of the Risk Matrix 2000 on an independent sample of 351 sexual offenders, followed in the community for an average duration of 11.4 years (range 0-20 years, SD = 4.4 years). For comparison purposes, this study also examines the predictive accuracy of two other risk assessment instruments, specifically modified versions of the Static-99 and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide (SORAG). Results indicate that the Risk Matrix 2000 demonstrates convergent validity by correlating with the other risk assessment instruments. Moreover, the Risk Matrix 2000 is predictive of recidivism above chance levels, exhibiting medium to large effect sizes, although in general, the other two instruments, particularly the SORAG, are superior. Results also indicate differences in predictive validity when comparing 2-year, 5-year, and variable follow-up periods. Finally, a cumulative meta-analysis compares and integrates current findings with those obtained from the accumulation of previous studies, and new cumulative estimates are provided.

Key Words: sex offender • recidivism • assessment • Risk Matrix 2000 • Static-99 • SORAG

This version was published on December 1, 2008

Sexual Abuse: A Journal of Research and Treatment, Vol. 20, No. 4, 466-484 (2008)
DOI: 10.1177/1079063208325206
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